IoT Coffee Talk
Welcome to IoT Coffee Talk where we talk tech and all things related to the Internet of Things. This program was started by a group of friends who just happen to be thought leaders, experienced practitioners and business leaders in the technology and communications services industries and more. This pod will feature weekly recordings of our casual conversations on the tech topics of the day with the hopes of delivering engaging and thought-provoking insights to our audience. We hope you enjoy program.
IoT Coffee Talk
#326 From FCF to Debt
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Um it's oldie.
SPEAKER_02Nineties.
SPEAKER_04It's nineties oldie. Of course, that's not oldie for us, obviously. It's kind of new for us.
SPEAKER_03I love that song, man. When it's a good song. You know, people bonkers. And you know when it came out, was um when I was like what's that band? Is that Third Eye Blind?
SPEAKER_04Third Eye Blind. Yeah. Alright, okay. All right. You know, those were good times, man. Those were good times. Could we just go back to the nineties, please?
SPEAKER_03Yes, please. Yeah.
SPEAKER_04I mean, I know we love the 80s, but uh, you know, at least in the world, wasn't the 90s fun in the world of tech?
SPEAKER_02And it was the like the birth, the birth of the internet, uh web browser, at least, the worldwide the 90s. Those were exciting times. Anything was possible. You could order a Domino's pizza or watch a coffee pot, you know. Uh all these cool things you could do with the web.
SPEAKER_04It was I I yeah, it was just like discovery, excitement, so many new things were coming out. We were all, and it's like no matter who you were talking about, it's like we were all just kids and we're emerging into this tech world and we're learning about the web.
SPEAKER_02What was possible?
SPEAKER_04And it was the the it was the rise of a few things at the same time, you know, it was the rise of Windows, it was the rise of the web. That's right.
SPEAKER_02Um I remember working as I worked for Phoenix Technologies, the BIOS company, and and I was kind of learning about the web on the side. And we actually create I created our company's first web page. Remember my boss coming into my office at one point saying, Why are you wasting your time with that internet stuff? Yeah. I remember I was like, I don't know, it's just some some fag, you know, it's not gonna catch on. I'll go I'll go back to firmware development. That's really where the action is.
SPEAKER_04That's what the action is.
SPEAKER_02That's the future.
SPEAKER_04It's the future. Firmware is the future. Remember front page?
SPEAKER_02Didn't did any of you painful, painful. Yeah, front page.
SPEAKER_04Um, but that was, you know, I just think of those times, and for me, you know, it was learning, it was like like when I I remember just studying stuff, like when I was on the submarine in the early 90s, and I had my off time and I'm reading all these books. And about like like when you said database back then, what you really were often talking about was a desktop database. That's what was hot back then. Local database, access. It was a local, yeah, yeah. There was access, there was uh D base 3 Plus, uh Heradox, uh Box Fox Pro. I don't know how big the boxes used to be when you go to like um but you used to get lots of manuals, instructions, and told you.
SPEAKER_02The box couldn't handle the contents, it was too much.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, crap. It was too much. But I but I loved it. We in fact I as we moved into the future, the boxes got smaller and thinner, and pretty soon they got like a disc, like the AOL discs that we got every week.
SPEAKER_03I just remember how exciting it was.
SPEAKER_04Like and then and it was geekland. I mean, we had all these cool computer stores everywhere back then. Remember the notion, remember all the mom and pop computer stores where you would build your computer? Like they were everywhere, you know. At least my I'm sure they were everywhere in California. My experience was just in Seattle or the east side, and they were all over the place. And you'd like, okay, here's the hottest new graphics card with two meg two meg of VRAMP, you know, and Vesa local bus. It's gonna be really fast. And I just upgraded it to a 46 66 dx2, and I'm excited. It's like a mainframe.
SPEAKER_02It was like computer land or whatever they were called.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, there were there were there were a lot of them. I remember up in yeah, I love Micro Center. Um still around. And and uh up and down, like you'd have to know about Seattle, up and down like Aurora. There were all these computer places, and they you'd build the computer, and it was it was exciting to get to learn how to build a PC, yeah, you know, and see how it works, because that was kind of fun.
SPEAKER_02Well, Fry's Electronics was the granddaddy of those. I know, yeah, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_03You know, see, here's the thing. This is this is why we do bad karaoke. It is because it inspires thoughts, it's nostalgic, right? You know, that one guitar riff just generated all of this stuff.
SPEAKER_04Oh my gosh. Uh I and you know, and for me, you know, personally, it was all about Visual Basic. And so before the web became a big thing, you had what was called client server computing, the rise of that. Yeah. Um, yeah, at first, you know, before Microsoft even got into the server game with NT, you know, you would you'd you saw the rise of Windows, and Windows took off with 3.1, I think was when it really launched in the stratosphere.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_04Uh, but you had Novell was the dominant networking company, Novell Networks, and so you know, some kind of client software on Windows 3.1 talking to Novell and uh you had MS Mail and you had to like map a Novell drive. I don't know if it was like the H drive or the M drive for Microsoft mail to work. It was bonkers. It would seem stupid to people today.
SPEAKER_02It was. I had a my cousin worked at Banyan, Banyan Vines. Oh, Banyan Vines. Banyan Vines. That was like that was the thing that was there for a while.
SPEAKER_03That was the thing, man. Banyan Vines was the shit, dude. But you know what? I I was thinking um back then um there was a lot of innovation going on. The pace of innovation was pretty feverish.
SPEAKER_05Yeah.
SPEAKER_03Even though the internet was just forming, um people kind of brute forced their knowledge knowledge attainment like what you did on the submarine. I was always at Barnes and Noble's constantly. I mean, it was like in the computer section, just reading up on everything. And we had so many urgent uh because we were, you know, at the time we were doing kind of like frontier stuff, like a forward deployed engineer has to do today, right? You you have to figure shit out. You know, I just threw up in my mouth. Hang on. Yeah, yeah. As a forward deployed engineer, it wasn't always the case that you knew all the answers. I mean, if you did, then you know, um, you wouldn't really be all that valuable. And they would, I mean, back then they would they would hire you, they would retain uh they would um you know uh give a project to uh the forward deployed engineering company, uh aka the consulting firm, that could had like sort of a track record of innovating and figuring things out, especially for the dot-coms, because the dot-coms didn't know what the hell they were doing. And so, you know, you really had to be creative, you had to work through conventional um systems and ways of thinking to adapt uh all all this normal stuff into things that supported these new business paradigms and uh and support their innovation, right? Like e-commerce. I uh worked on a bunch of e-commerce stuff, and these guys were doing stuff that was are you know pretty were pretty mind-boggling. A lot of them didn't end up anywhere, just like a lot of the AI stuff is not gonna end up anywhere. But there was that that there was that intensity, man, back then because there was a lot of money floating around. It was relatively smaller than what we see with the AI stuff, but it was the same vibe, right?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, everybody wanted to be in on the action, whatever the action was, and right, you know.
SPEAKER_04There was, I guess that maybe there were multiple 90s or parallel multiverses of the 90s, because there's this time frame of just excitement around a the primitive PC. We didn't know it was primitive, and the fact that you just had I've because obviously I ran DOS for a lot of the 90s, right? Um, and and DOS was fun and all the DOS games were fun, and and you know, you had X-Tree Gold to look at all your file structures. Um and then Windows, the fact that you could run Windows with like two or four mega RAM was amazing.
SPEAKER_02Um the Windows 3.1 was like that was kind of like 89, 90. And then, you know, the web was more like 93, 94, I think. So there was that's right.
SPEAKER_04But but but I guess what I'm getting at though is early how you know how we talk about the futures here, but it's not evenly distributed. So the web had launched, not everybody there was a lot of people that were moving that were early 90s were doing desktop computing. I was excited that I had my what was the quicken and thought that was amazing. Quicken, I remember that. And there was no such thing as a connecting to the internet or any of that. It was just there, and you had a local um, and then client server computing when Windows for Work Groups came out, that was exciting, you know. It was like all of a sudden I could have like five different computers on a network talking to each other. This is the future, you know. It still wasn't and that wasn't the internet. The internet had launched, but there was still this other corporate world where they were like, wow, we may not have to use Nobel netware, you know, and then you had, but then at you're right, Pete at the same time, like '93 Windows NT launches, and all of a sudden there's Microsoft's trying to get into the server game, which was new ish, right? And it and it probably scared the hell out of Nobel. And you were going, we've got NetBuoy as our protocol.
SPEAKER_02And Banyan Vines.
SPEAKER_04And Banyan Vines. And those were not routable protocols. Like it could be just on a network segment. And it was a while before this why in fact we have to don't we have to kind of really give credit to Windows 95 to bake in a lot of things. Like just I know it sounds stupid, baking in TCP IP in a and Windows 95 was a I mean, we can argue about it, but at least initially, it was a consumer product. Right. People were buying Windows 95 for their own PC. Yeah. And the fact that it had TCP IP, it had a browser which would lead to a lawsuit later on, and a whole bunch of other stuff that a consumer had. And they're like, oh my god.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_04This is you know, this is crazy.
SPEAKER_02I should have brought if I knew we were gonna do this, I have like uh uh issue number one of Wired Magazine in my little collection because I used to be I loved Wired Magazine, and that was like early 90s, 92, 93. That was like FTP and all kinds of stuff. Yeah, and you can see in the in the issues, the early issues where the web becomes like a thing, like they shifted from CompuServe and FTP into like WWW, and like how everyone's head was like exploding on all the possibilities of the web at that time, mid early, mid early 90s, 93.
SPEAKER_04There were some there were some guys, I don't know if it was in Wired or InfoWorld, because and those are the days of those great magazines. Great magazines. Remember, some of them were like really big computer magazines like really easy. Yeah, and you're like, yes, the new one's out. I can hardly wait to find out. I hear in the future there's gonna be this thing called 32-bit computing. I don't even know what that means, but it's gonna be awesome. And and and there was some guy early on they're talking about I remember they referred to this new internet thing as the info bond. Kind of like the autobon. I remember I remember different writers in those in PC World or InfoWorld or whatever talking about the info bond is coming, and it's gonna be incredible. We'll probably have a hundred computers attached. Yeah, but it was exciting. So you had desktop, you had desktop everything. Then you had this client server in the corporate world. Uh, you you went from Novell to the rise of Windows NT as a back end, and you started putting back in stuff in client server stuff in in corporate computing databases typically. Uh the and then web servers. Oh my god, I have a web server and storage, database and storage.
SPEAKER_02That was basically rise.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, absolutely. Just the fact that Pete's making a web page. It's like, look what we did. I know, you know, that's awesome. Who's gonna visit that?
SPEAKER_02No one's gonna visit that.
SPEAKER_04No, who's who you know, of the 100,000 websites on the whole planet, who's gonna visit? Yeah, really, you know.
SPEAKER_03You know what, you know what's really interesting? Because I I, you know, um I I was in Deer Valley um talking to investors, and you know, they um teaming gets together some really amazing industry leaders um from across tech, and we were talking about you know, the impact of uh the internet because everyone's talking about when's the bubble gonna pop, right? Um there's no question there's a bubble. Uh, people who don't think there is a bubble are truly uh in the bubble. They are the bubble glasses, yeah. Um because you know, what is it this week? What is it that uh Jensen did? Oh, the Goldman Sachs thing. Don't get me started. Holy crappers. You know, we're officially debt funding. They are officially debt funding everything because you know, like last year the the the uh holdouts, right? The AI bubble holdouts are saying, well, this is all equity and cash flow, you know, supported by you know cash flows from hyperscalers. Guess what?
SPEAKER_02These guys are no, it's not, it's not, it's all yeah. I mean, just uh a little riff on that was that basically what Jensen did, uh he said a couple things that kind of got me agitated. Oh shit.
SPEAKER_03So we triggered this is truly triggering you.
SPEAKER_02It triggered me. But the for part so the deal is before we get into that.
SPEAKER_03Hey everyone, welcome to Coffee Talk Disclaimer. Care only to have fun, take it seriously at your own dire risk, and whatever Pete says right now, uh you know, just you know, he has the right to uh be friendly.
SPEAKER_04It's it's for entertainment purposes only.
SPEAKER_02Yes, and full disclosure, I uh I am a shareholder in NVIDIA, so just for full disclosure. But there you go. But here's the issue. It's like basically, like you said, it's moving from cash to debt. So the basically he's saying, look, if you have like bad credit, low credit, no credit, you know, if you if you kidnapped someone, if you murdered someone, doesn't matter. We will lend you money to buy to build a data center. You know, we love no credit, uh, you know, things it's like burnt funk, you know, of the data center world. So it's like we will lend you like and Goldman Sachs will lend you money to build a data center, and then Nvidia will back up, will back up that loan, right, in case you bail, right? That's kind of part of the deal. And and so so now there's gonna be these low interest loans, you know, no money down, you know, data building. What does that sound like $50 a month for the next 3,000 years or whatever the terms are? And then what's that that so that's crazy, and then um, and obviously I'm exaggerating a little bit, but that's essentially what it is. Nvidia is backstopping the loans to build data centers. Now, here's the here's the hitch: like you have to use NVIDIA chips in your data centers. Oh, right. So that's it's probably like the terms of the loan. It's like, oh, you get to low, so so that's like a weird thing where it's like, okay, I'm gonna loan you money to build a data center, NVIDIA's backstopping it, but you need to use NVIDIA systems in your data center. So I was like, I don't know if that's anti-competitive or what's going on. So that is funky. And then the other thing that he said, so that that smells, it has a certain whiff to it, which I don't like. And then the other thing is saying, like, oh, now chips chips are now a tradable commodity or something like that.
SPEAKER_03Investible. Investible asset. Investible asset.
SPEAKER_02Investable asset. I'm like, what are you talking about? Like the chip itself is is useless, right? It has to be part of a system as solution, it has to be part of a business that makes money. That's the asset that you're investing in, right? Yeah, so so that kind of bothered me too. Like he's invented this new idea of like investing in chips or something.
SPEAKER_03Well, the the problem, by the way, I I don't think I've ever seen Pete uh you know talk so loud and so fast in my life, Rob. I mean, that would that look like that.
SPEAKER_02He's agitated, and I'm riled up. No money down, no money down, David.
SPEAKER_04He's seen this before. He's seen this used car ad before.
SPEAKER_02Burn fall.
SPEAKER_04I don't care.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, yeah, yeah. But he's bank, I mean, you know, a lot of the narrative is banking on just general ignorance of people, and I have to say, ignorant people who uh don't see similar you know patterns of the past or have misinterpreted patterns of the past, going back to like internet and the dot com bust. And when I hear the analogies and the similes that are used to you know uh create the argument, it's different this time. You you listen to that argument, you clearly understand that that person has didn't live it. They just read it, somebody gave them a tagline, and that's what they attached to, and that's what shaped their belief and view on things, and then it becomes very colored from that point on, right? And then you know, disconnected from what we actually experienced. And then actually and what happened, because you know, they they don't realize how devastating the dot-com crash was. You know, you were you would go to Mountain View, and every single corner you would see dozens of for sale signs.
SPEAKER_02I mean, it was like oh yeah, and the roads were empty, there was no traffic. There was no no traffic on the road.
SPEAKER_03You can get to you can go from Palo Alto, you know, SJC in 25 minutes. Before it would take you two hours.
SPEAKER_02And yeah.
SPEAKER_04Nobody people don't realize people don't realize how much money was lost, how many people. All I mean, the stories we could talk about the devastation, about those of us who lived through it, who did a dot coms, who found out they were working for free, and who like all their savings was gone and investments gone, and and worked with I remember people at my dot-com that I was at, and and you know what was sad is we didn't know that the end was happening. Like in the moment you think, and we probably talked about this more. I remember obviously the end happened in uh was it March, April of 2000 when all the term sheets got torn up. And uh I but I remember at the time it was like, oh, oh, everybody's just like, oh, it's just a little weird patch right now. I think but later in the summer we'll be good. We'll be back in it, baby. You know, more fundraising. And then all of a sudden the fundraising it just stopped. And the VCs just turn off the spigot. Maybe they finally listened to Warren Buffett, who's like, I don't understand or believe in any of this stuff. And it and then it was over. And I had I had people that I knew who put up their life savings to help companies make payroll of dot coms, only to make payroll, and then the company still goes out of business and they've lost everything.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean it was dangerous. Well, what didn't Jensen say investable assets just like railroads? Yes, just like how did that work out?
SPEAKER_03The railroad Yeah, well, you know, he's citing everything uh where people had a FOMO bet on it and then it all collapsed.
SPEAKER_02It's like, okay, so if you have to, if you have to sort of uh I want to say rig the system, but if you have to sort of push the system to create low interest loans for your product, you're in trouble. A good sign there should be enough demand from the customer where there's the interest they they should be falling over themselves to make these loans. You should have to do that.
SPEAKER_04Does it seem like Jensen, is he like a Jedi? Does he have the force kind of powers? Because I feels like he can hypnotize people in believing everything that comes, because obviously the smartest people in the world and the savviest financial people on Wall Street are all hypnotized by Jensen.
SPEAKER_02Well, although you look at it from like a Goldman Sachs side, it's like, well, there's not much downside for them. They're like, Yeah, we'll make these loans, you're gonna back it up, and uh we'll make money either way, right? So I mean unless there's a big default, I mean, in which case NVIDIA backs it up, you know. So I don't think there's downside for Goldman Sachs who attach themselves to NVIDIA at this point.
SPEAKER_03Well, they have like the whole, you know, so uh when that announcement was made, there was a lot of talk about. About you know credit default uh you know uh swaps and options and stuff like that. So they've created some uh derivatives, so there is an escape valve for some of this. But the thing is is whoever's making the bet are gonna lose tremendously. It's these these short sellers, the people who are who are banking on um you know everything going to the toilet, they're the ones who are gonna who you're gonna make off like bandits, right?
SPEAKER_04All I know is we should start writing the script now for a new movie that's kind of like the big short, but it's about what's about to happen, and we see it and we know it's gonna happen, and let's have the script ready for Hollywood. Yeah, because it's gonna be the same thing, you know. And you made a comment there, Pete. It's like like Goldman has no downside unless NVIDIA defaults. NVIDIA is the backstop to everything. Yeah, and if the hyperscalers, the hyperscalers are the primary funders of NVIDIA's wealth, they're they're the ones who had all the money. Yeah, and this whole journey we've been on, and it's not like it's been a long time. It seems like it has, but it hasn't.
SPEAKER_02A few years, just a few years.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, a few years. The hyperscalers had a lot of cash. It all started, we have tons of cash on hand because we have more money than God, and so we're buying all of a sudden you went from a video game, uh, video graphics card guy to you know doing this AI stuff, and then uh, and so all of a sudden he's going up there, and oh now we're worth a trillion, now it's two trillion, and all that money was coming from hyperscalers. And then we've seen you're right, now we've got debt financing happening. I think I remember the first time I heard about it in a big way was Oracle uh doing a lot of debt financing, and then you started hearing about the layoffs. In fact, I think yesterday I saw Oracle decided we're gonna have to lay off even more people than we did last time because we don't have enough. Yeah, and so we're trading people for GPUs, we're doing debt financing, we burned through the cash on hand, and so now and what else are we seeing? Secondary offerings, all these companies now are issuing new stock and diluting their stock price. All of them are Intel just did uh Microsoft, except Microsoft, except for Microsoft, yeah.
SPEAKER_02And so they're trading at 500 because they run their business.
SPEAKER_03You can tell that kind of changed their attitude on the infrastructure investment and strategy. It it they are they're in pivot mode right now. You can tell.
SPEAKER_04Um these guys are sitting in meeting rooms right now, they're in boardrooms deciding, and they're saying, and some people are talking to them, going, I don't know about this, Bob. I don't know if this is a good idea. We're laying off everybody and we're going into all this debt, and we're issuing, and what if it all doesn't work out? And then there's the other side, it's like we have to meet the moment, this AI moment. If we don't, we'll be a nobody, a backwater company. And so we have to do it.
SPEAKER_03At this point, it's uh I think there's a lot of what did we get ourselves into? The FOMO bet is not playing out. We're in now the the debt financing phase of this hype cycle. And you know, we have to remember the whole argument this whole time has been this is all cash flow driven. And eventually, in short, actually, it wasn't eventually this is such a revolutionary technology. These companies are the fastest uh quote unquote growing companies out there, like you know, the AI labs, that their their revenues are gonna go through and they're gonna make a shit ton of money, right? That that was the basis of the bet. It's just people forget because over time, as shit starts to look not so great, they have this narrative that continues to morph and change the way that people view and believe in the story, right? And um now uh because you know, think about all these jokers on CNBC talking all oh, well, you know, this is like uh this is different this time. Really? Really? And this so it's so not a good thing. I mean, you know, what part and do you understand the technology, you know, how this shit fits together for stack? Um I don't think you do. And so this is not different. The the round table turning out not to be different.
SPEAKER_04That's the funny thing, right? It feels like the it feels like the thing we all watch with Jensen on CNBC is like the final death throws that people don't know it. They're excited. It's like, okay, everybody's burned through free cash flow, debt financing, liquidating employees, uh issuing new stock. What's left? Because as soon, and we've talked about this before, as soon as the hyperscalers, who are the only ones who actually had the money to do all this, stop doing it, and they will stop doing it. They have to stop doing it. Money doesn't last forever, and they're gonna say, okay, we've built out this cool AI input, we're done. Jensen in the back of his mind is terrified, going, there's a possibility that my company could collapse back to just being a video graphics card company when all when that I'm I'm exaggerating. Yes, yeah, you are. But just for you know, to make it exciting, you know. Sure, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Clickbait, clickbait.
SPEAKER_04You're you're taking creative license. I'm taking but but think about it. Think about it. How many years ago was he just a you know, whatever hundred million dollar company or one billion dollar or table and Dak O Denny's, you know, right?
SPEAKER_02Exactly.
SPEAKER_04It wasn't that long ago. Obviously, people started buying GPUs uh because of Bitcoin mining, and it was better for uh for that. That's that's where they started because the those cards helped accelerate that. And then and we're seeing lots of Bitcoin miner companies now pivoting to become AI data centers. But there's a fear that Jensen has that he can see the end of the runway where all the money's gone. I don't mean people are dead to it, it's just the data center people like, okay, we're good. We bought 10 Jillion of your GPUs and we're good. And then all of a sudden, you know, next quarter for NVIDIA just drops off a cliff. And so he's like, How do I prevent that from happening? And obviously, he's been trying to say, Well, I'm more than just this GPU, I'm building data center and rack scale, and I'm gonna have robots and all this stuff because he needs to make sure there's a reason for people to keep that stock going.
SPEAKER_05Yeah.
SPEAKER_04Uh, but all could it so then what does it lead to? Here we are at CNBC. All right, I'm gonna ride have 500 billion raised and backed by Goldman and everybody so to keep the hype machine going, to keep this whole machine going for a little bit longer before I have to eject and parachute out of here.
SPEAKER_02I'm kind of surprised he made such a public association with the debt financing. I don't know, maybe in his mind he thought it would be more of a like this investable asset story, but it just sounds like Vern Funk all over again.
SPEAKER_03It does. Because he's the only guy who can sell sell that storyline. Uh and most people here, I'll tell you something right now. Most people have no friggin' clue what an AI factory is. Okay. They don't.
SPEAKER_04Um people are people who think people who think they're smart after that meeting were like having lunch with friends, and they're talking about, hey, it's an investable asset. Yeah. I'm really smart. I'm really plugged in. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03And then, you know, this whole idea that uh like some land I got for you in Florida.
SPEAKER_02Like the tulip market. Remember that? That worked out.
SPEAKER_03That worked out exactly. I got a parcel of swamp. You're gonna love this, baby. Yeah, yeah. Oh gosh. You can build a house on it. Um, no, I mean, you know, it it's just um yeah, they they don't even know what uh you when you listen to what was shared, it's kind of disturbed me because I I actually what it is is risk offload. They see the risk piling up. They're gonna go and they're gonna hit the debt markets. And the thing that really bothered me was I think it was the Blackstone guy started uh, you know, said it, you know, it's akin to a mortgage-backed uh, you know, derivative or uh security. And I'm thinking, you know what? That is a word that I don't want to hear related to this stuff because that's like a CDO.
SPEAKER_04How many years do we have to wait before we have these meetings where everybody's in there with the Fed with the Fed and going, I don't want to be like Bear Stearns or Solomon Brothers or any of it's like, all right, I'm gonna need you to buy this other bank, and I'm gonna need you to do this to backstop this guy, and I need Warren Buffett to give me a bunch of money to backstop Goldman, you know, you know, there's that whole democratization talking point, or that yeah, hey, we want everyone to be able to participate in the AI revolution, but the thing is um they were talking about pensions can invest in this.
SPEAKER_03I I'm thinking, whoa. That would be that would be something. You know, 401ks. I mean, they're already you know, all these companies already bid across all the indices. You know, um yeah, the problem with circular uh circular financing stuff is not vendor financing. They call it vendor financing. It's just you know, vendor finding is different. You actually have a a customer who has organic demand, you know, like a friggin' car. It's an end-market product. Okay, it's it's a car, it has economic value. It you know, when you can resell it, it it has uh functionally uh economic value, and then you can basically um underwrite that, and then um, you know, uh so is this kind of like when they go is this like NVIDIA saying we're gonna give you zero percent financing on an 84-month loan on your car.
SPEAKER_04On a GB100 or whatever, you know. Uh MBL72. Yeah. We're still making these cars and we're dealing, we're dealing, and we're moving these cars. Sunday, Sunday. Come on, yeah, exactly.
SPEAKER_03And then, you know, it's the the concept of uh AI factory. The problem is is that you know, he still has this one-year cadence for the um the technological advancement of these uh AI platforms, right? The the systems, the racks and the clusters and stuff. Uh how does that reconcile with this idea that the infrastructure lasts for 10 years? It doesn't. You know, it doesn't even, I don't even think you can reconcile that with uh a a traditional data center. You know? Right. Uh it it's crazy. And you know, this idea, well, you know, we did the software tweak, so you know, these these models can run on uh you know an A100. Well, it's gonna it's gonna be much more power hungry. It's gonna take much more power per token. Uh it's not gonna be as efficient, and you know, everyone's move trying to uh for inference try to squeeze out floating point you know four, right? FP4. These older chips don't support that, so the scaling doesn't work. So you know people largely don't know this stuff.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, we're reducing the accuracy of math in order to get more bang for the buck.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, and so yeah, this this idea that somehow the A100 is better. You know what? It's it's so much um less cost efficient to run on an A100. And so everybody's trying to get your attention on the price.
SPEAKER_04I think of this debt. Everybody so everybody's went into debt. Who's the role model for debt? Oh, is it the United States government with $30 trillion in debt? Not what it is now? No. Yeah, that's what it is now. Give or take. Does any of this make any sense? Like what if you you knew how you had that much debt hanging over your head, what options would you take or not be taking uh when you have that kind of debt hanging over your head? Um you know, I mean, I don't know. We're in la la land. I uh don't get me started. Sometimes I think our economy is uh an illusion that it's pretend capitalism because we actually just print money to create the illusion that everything's working out okay, right?
SPEAKER_03Well, our our primary product doesn't have any foundational economic value, it's just you know, uh TikTok videos and friggin', you know, it's advertising. As soon as we saw that we have a BS economy.
SPEAKER_04As soon as we saw that Arizona State had that ad for their new major of becoming an influencer, it's just like idiocracy is here. That's it.
SPEAKER_03Anyway, all right. So, what does any of this have anything to do with IoT? Oh, by the way, hold on, hold on, hold on. Hey everyone.
SPEAKER_05Whoa, there you go.
SPEAKER_02Whoa, look at that book.
unknownWoohoo.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, basic value. Yeah, that's an investable asset right there. This is an investable asset, y'all. And it's saving the friggin' earth, okay, with that's right, IoT, not AI. IoT, simple stuff.
SPEAKER_04We're gonna be using that book in our post-apocalyptic wasteland after the AI collapse.
SPEAKER_03Here's a definition of stupid trying to use a technology that is destroying the earth to save the earth. That doesn't make any sense. This is the beautiful thing about what Rob has done here. If you haven't picked up your copy, you should because this is like literally the Bible on IoT value. This this stuff is cheap. You know, like Rob said, like these algorithms, even I can even cheat. You can figure them out. I know.
SPEAKER_04Look, yeah. I I just go, it's like a stoplight. Green, yellow, red.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I mean, these are like blueprints. It's like yeah, it's a blueprint for saving the earth. Like little there you go.
SPEAKER_04That's awesome.
SPEAKER_03This is what you need to be educated on, not tokens.
SPEAKER_04There you go. I love that. I love that. We're here to educate you. There you go. There you go. We're gonna how are we gonna save the economy?
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Let me do a little uh PSA too. So we have our edge um learning modules. Um learn.edjifoundation.org. This week we made the edge I fundamentals module free for everyone in four languages because we introduced five other modules around physical AI and agentic and security and sensing. So now that we have the whole portfolio, we made the 100-level one free. So if you go to learn.edgifoundation.org, you can take a free and you get a batch and a certificate for edge fundamentals. And uh my visual there, but that's kind of what it looks like. You can't really see it. Oh, that's right. Yeah, go to go to learn and uh it's free. And uh it's in uh English, Spanish, Arabic, and Mandarin. So uh the whole world can get educated on edge AI and what it can do for you, and it's great for engineers, but it's also good for product managers and executives who are getting you know pump pummeled with the requests to spend money on edge AI. They're like, oh, let me learn about it.
SPEAKER_04So let me learn about this stuff.
SPEAKER_02That's a nice compliment to Rob's book. You can get both and then get super educated on both things. So it's absolutely free. Absolutely.
SPEAKER_04That's awesome.
SPEAKER_02That's awesome. That's a good idea. Behalf of our partners, subsidized by our partners. That's why we can do it.
SPEAKER_03So yeah. No, I mean these this is like this is like uh this is real stuff, you know. That's the cool thing about it. Yeah, it implies like you don't need reality as all this digital.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you don't need like no credit loans to do edge AI solutions uh, you know, and solve like agricultural issues, medical issues, you know, um industrial manufacturing, automotive, like you don't need uh low interest in low credit loans to do any of that stuff. Yeah, safety, you know and also the the models in edge AI do not escape the sandbox and go.
SPEAKER_03Thank God. Yeah, they don't.
SPEAKER_02Oh thank God. So they they don't escape the sandbox, and you don't need a no-credit loan to do any of that stuff. But there you go. That's your value prop of why AI is moving to the edge. Because I love it.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, and you know what? Um I I had a chat with a buddy of mine uh in Deer Valley, and we were talking about the prospects of edge infrastructure, you know, uh emerging edge architectures. And that's really I think where everyone needs to start to look in terms of like real value and economic differentiation, you know, and um it'll be you know, because everyone talks about hey, when we need to use this uh technology to improve our tech uh, you know, our industrial base. Well, when we invest so much into bullshit economy, right? Because you know, like TikTok videos and like friggin' porn and all this other crap, we are we are getting further and further behind China and actually applying technology across the edge and across into you know industrial environments and driving the kind of um you know innovation that we need just to just to keep up, right? They have uh economic, you know, like uh economics type of advantage already. The economics are in their favor. We need to we need to invest more in in this kind of innovation and apply this stuff across the board, otherwise, you know how how are we going to hey Bill, what's up, man? How are you? All right, what do we got here? Louisville slugger.
SPEAKER_04All right, yeah, with a it's all about the wood. That's what she said. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03Uh you missed out, man.
SPEAKER_02We'll edit that out in the post.
SPEAKER_04We're gonna edit that out. Oh my god. Yeah. I was thinking of Steve Carral. I don't know.
unknownOh man.
SPEAKER_04Anyway. Yeah, so Bill, it's so good to see you, man. It's been a while.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, man. I look, I I have been missing in action, you know. I mean, like business takes takes precedence over everything. Sure. And I'm I'm really trying to get us focused and and to a to a point where True North will become a participating member of Edge AI Foundation. Yeah, so we are all about that.
SPEAKER_02You get a hat, by the way. You get a baseball hat when you join Bill Lang.
SPEAKER_01Oh, cool. I need I love those, man. I have perhaps you've seen the cool logo. Yeah, you know, um, but but the entire team, the entire team is like, yes, we want to do that. So I'm like, go and finish up these deals. I've got three new partners that I'm I I have to get across the line. Um, so once once we get those things done, I I wanted it to be come out of my mouth, hold me accountable. We will become participating members of Edge AI.
SPEAKER_02Fantastic. Fantastic. You get a free hat and you also get a copy of Rob's book. So there you go.
SPEAKER_01There you go. Did you pick up your Rob's book? Did you pick up yours? Oh I bought it. I bought it. I just need I just need Rob to sign it for me.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you need the signed edition. That's the yeah. Come to come to Amsterdam, you can get your book signed in Amsterdam.
SPEAKER_04That's right. Come to Amsterdam. I'm having multiple people, multiple people are saying, how do I get the signed copy? And I'm like, uh, I gotta get my hair together on that, obviously. Uh well, actually, that's how I'm gonna get uh our other buddy we never see anymore, David Vasquez. Um I'm gonna I'm gonna get him his signed copy in Amsterdam.
SPEAKER_02And then it's CES, we'll get together at CES, maybe we'll do a little book signing there. So, you know. Absolutely.
SPEAKER_01You know, actually might come out to CES for 2027. Oh right. Okay. Haven't been in a while. So I mean, I think I think we're gonna I think we're gonna come out. I mean, we we we've got some I've been kind of quiet. We've got some big things kind of uh hitting on the rise and on the horizon here coming up.
SPEAKER_02All right, sounds good.
SPEAKER_01I'm I'm pretty happy.
SPEAKER_04That's awesome. That is awesome. I love that. I'd say the I'd say the edge stuff in my book is it's different and complementary to edge AI because it's not it doesn't have any AI in it, it's like edge KPI.
SPEAKER_02We gotta have edge before we have edge AI, so then exactly.
SPEAKER_01Exactly. I mean, I was gonna say that just the fact that it has edge, it's up to the implementation team to put the AI in it.
SPEAKER_02That's right. Yeah, maybe that's volume two, Rob. We should work on volume two.
SPEAKER_04Exactly. I don't know, I remember I remember at on the Azure A IoT, I remember we put together, guys, this is all the way back in 2014 or 2015, like an open source SDK kind of thing to run on edge devices. And in our mind, in fact, a lot of people's mind who are in edge back then and in the 2017-2018, um, their idea of an edge was let's go buy an Intel Nook. Yes. That and that's that was Edge devices. Yes.
SPEAKER_02Um, it's still legitimate, very legitimate stuff, you know, in the in the camping on edge.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, and then you saw Dell and HP start making industrialized versions of that that were bigger, that had all the COM ports, 40, 485, RS232. And so that that was the edge. Yeah, 232, 485. I'm down with anyway.
SPEAKER_02SCSI ports, parallel ports.
SPEAKER_04SCSI, parallel, all that stuff. Because what did we more what we learned by then in IoT is to be successful in IoTs, you have to go work in the gap of the ugly, as we didn't know that term yet. No, but a lot of people who failed in IoT thought it was all greenfield, brand new, awesome stuff and Raspberry Pis. And so yeah, so that rides the edge. How do I talk to all these machines on my factory floor? I have to, and so yeah, it wasn't Raspberry Pis or anything like that.
SPEAKER_03Um Yeah, what we need to do is make sure that our older um actually we should create a university because all of our content uh it's there to guide everyone uh to not make the same mistakes. And we've already talked about all this shit. That's the thing. You know, it's just we have episodes that explain all this stuff already. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And but my my concern is that when when the bullshit economy and all this bullshit uh starts to unravel, and then people realize they gotta get real, and then edge edge stuff becomes that ground truth that people have to tune into, they're gonna get confused again. You're gonna have all the same yahoos that are self-proclaimed AI guys, right? You know, and you know, prompt engineers and shit start coming down here acting like they're some sort of fucking uh IoT expert.
SPEAKER_02Well, that's our opportunity to educate the world.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. So we need to create those defenses right now for everyone. Right.
SPEAKER_02It's like the books, the classes, the all the good stuff. The books. Yeah, doing outreach too. We do we do actually do uh we do more PR outreach now to like mainstream business press to educate them about edge AI and uh you know just to kind of get it in their heads. You'd be surprised. I mean, maybe it wouldn't you this group wouldn't be surprised, but they really don't know what that is until you explain it to them. And then they're like, oh, I get it. And I think actually physical AI is helping with that a little bit. Sure. Getting people situation.
SPEAKER_04I'm hearing about the world and helping the world. Do we need to and we have guitarists in here? Do we need to have our own concert, kind of like live aid or something like that? Yeah. AI aid.
SPEAKER_03AI aid. Yeah, yeah. Um man, don't get me on physical AI, dude. Uh I I asked that question a shit ton of times this week, and people have no clue.
SPEAKER_02Well, yeah, because people have no clue, so therein lies the opportunity to give them the clue to say what what does this mean exactly? Yeah, um, and it is super valuable if you get go get get away from the dancing robots and the laundry folding robots, but get into real like warehouse work, construction work, like inspection work, like physical AI in those environments is really transformative.
SPEAKER_03So physical AI, if you think it's if you think it's just robotics or you think it's robotics, then you you already got it wrong. So um that's so embodied of you.
SPEAKER_04Yeah. Our good friend, you know, it's really common sense, use the right tool for the job. And, you know, so like when I published a deal the other day, like a graphic that had 15 steps to do these SDGs, and it's basically you follow you can do 15 steps to build almost any IoT solution. But Mark reached out and said, well, wait a second, where's the ML model on the device so that you don't have to needlessly send data back there and eat up battery and stuff like that? And I was like, well, yeah, I don't really talk much about that. But remember, prior to the edge AI thing, and also if I had a dollar for everyone who has moved the edge down to what I used to call the endpoint, um anyway, don't get me started. It was the endpoint, then there was the edge, then there was the core or the cloud, and now people are saying, well, actually that microcontroller is the edge, but it used to be an endpoint, but whatever, who cares? Um putting stuff on there, you don't always have to have an AI, an ML model using Tiny ML on that deal to prevent needlessly sending data. Use the right analytics for the right job. You only use machine learning if you really need it. But if you're doing a lot of stupid stuff like I do, which turns out the hardest problems on the entire planet are solved with the stupid stuff, thank God for me that I don't need AI to do that. But you but we started doing that on the at the device level a long, long time ago. And all the biggest, most successful IoT companies learned how to build simple branching logic and push it down to the device and do there. And so the same, because if all I'm doing is doing you know threshold ranges and stuff like that, you're right. I don't have to do it in the cloud. I can do it right on the device. It's easy. Use the right thing.
SPEAKER_01I think I think you still you still have to give back to that damn age old question. The fuck problem are you trying to solve?
SPEAKER_03Boom. I don't really remember it having the F word in it, but yeah. Oh, I'm sorry. Yeah, sorry.
SPEAKER_02I'll tell you kick the meeting off.
SPEAKER_03Now you can't flavor, put a little stake on the delivery. Is that it?
SPEAKER_01I mean, for real, right? I mean, yeah, look, when people are saying, you know, again, and and and Rob, to your point, I the first and foremost, I've read I'm I'm 75% through the book, and and and there is nothing that I've read that I would say, well, Rob, I think you kind of got this wrong. Well, I think it's you're you're you're hitting the nail on the head. I agree with it. I will be quoting bits and pieces of it. Yeah, but keep it simple. But the key is still, I mean, all these people that are like redefining the edge down to the end point. Let me let me tell you something that that a lot of them are 100% missing. Compliance, standards, and cybersecurity. All right, those three elements, when you get down to the end point, and we can take energy and water metering, take water metering. I mean, uh is going to be asking for audit records. Do you need something down at that meter that's only reporting? It's it's logging its interval data and it's reporting up once a day. Why do you need anything learning down there? You don't.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. No, you know what? And and and here's the one of the things that um I'm talking about a lot more these days is helping people understand that a most a a vast majority of AI, if not all of it, doesn't learn. You know, inference isn't learning, it's apply applying whatever it is that the the model has been trained on. Learning is an entirely different mechanism, and it's very, you know, even with uh, you know, you have these people going around saying, well, we have a learning AI. Um, the reason why they say that is because LLMs in with the current methodologies and systems, they just don't learn. You train them, but training isn't learning. And um this is one of the things that I've help had to help a lot of folks uh start to understand better because especially if you're just a a business level person who's not really technical, hasn't really dealt with AI, you you literally believe these things learn and they don't. You know, the models don't learn. And so uh and then the mechanism for actually making it learn is very, very expensive, uh, you know, in terms of price, in terms of like complexity of the system that you have to put together to make it create that illusion, you know.
SPEAKER_04Like if you do the post-training, the fine-tuning to make your be trained model learn versus just inference on what you already know, or a lot of people are finding it more economical just to do rag, I guess.
SPEAKER_03I mean, people there's some people that are doing closed loop with LoRa and stuff like that, but and then now with the agentic stuff, they're using like MD files to store like context. That's cheating. That's that that's not the actual AI learning.
SPEAKER_01It's not cheating, it's it's setting the stage. But the problem with markdowns is that they they they age and and they drift, yeah the real with the real world changing, which is right, which is why from from our perspective, when we're talking about these things, because you know, people will say, you know, well, you know, where's your AI? And it's like, I'm like, are you looking at the dashboard? Yes, you see things changing. Yeah, then you saw the AI. Don't worry about it. Don't worry about it.
SPEAKER_03That's a good point. That's a good point. Reality tricks from what you trained the model on.
SPEAKER_01That's uh right, and yeah, yeah, and they don't understand, you know, how these things work. And when we start talking about agents, we've been dealing with you know what we would call agents, web agents, forever. Yeah, it's HTTP sockets that are spread out all over the place. Uh it's a distributed database, it's but it's the rules by which each endpoint is actually operating under. I'm not learning on the endpoint. The learning is happening in flight based on state change. It's simple, yeah, but it's that complex as well.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, but I remember I remember Bill when you were in Japan and you were writing all about you were writing all about the drift and how that happens. And I think that white paper you put on. I think you put out that white paper, I think it was called Tokyo Drift.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it was I mean, and you have to be smooth with it, baby. You have to be smooth with it.
SPEAKER_04It was good, it was good stuff, man. That's good stuff, absolutely. Digital twins can help a drift. Absolutely.
SPEAKER_01Context, context, context, yeah, you know, context. People don't understand, they don't, they really don't understand how long ago, and see, it had to be when we did that first utility, uh, and we were only given uh endpoint data, meter reads for about a year. But yeah, when you see the twin, I'm showing you distribution transformers, I'm showing you feeders, I'm showing you substations and the explosion of them, meaning that we can roll it up and we can click down. And people are like, How did you do that? And I'm like, that's inference, it's math.
SPEAKER_04It's all math, yeah.
SPEAKER_01It's it 100%, it's all math.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_03That's true. That's the ultimate forward deployed engineer right there. Bill in the gap of the ugly.
SPEAKER_01This is what your forward deployed engineer looks like.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, that's right.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_04And so all those newly hired forward deployed engineers and all these companies, if they're not working and living in the gap of the ugly, and if they don't look like Bill, it's a hoax. It's fake. Fake news, people, fake news. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03Bill, you know what's funny is that on YouTube I keep getting served that uh scene in um training day where Denzel Washington, yeah, go, King, I've got nothing on me.
SPEAKER_01I'm just waiting for you then. You won't call him on me.
SPEAKER_04Yeah. Well, it's funny that you say Denzel, because I was thinking of that when you were holding up the book and then we were talking about the collapse of society when we've run out of money on all this AI funding that we're doing for Jensen. I was thinking of a post-apocalyptic world to save. And it's did you see that movie, The Book of Eli? Yeah, Denzel wants to death. And he was blind, yeah. Denzel, and he was blind, but he had the it was all you know, the book and everything. So it's gonna be IoT Saves the Planet deal, and it's gonna be the book of Eli. That's what's gonna save. We're gonna pull it all back together. We'll be in the rubble, wasteland, GPUs laying all over the place, all over the ground, and stuff like that.
SPEAKER_01I'll go get a trench coat and some glasses and machines and whatnot.
SPEAKER_03And I'll and a gigantic friggin' knife. That knife was scary. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, that wasn't a machete. That was like something else. That was like No, but but that's the closest I'm gonna get.
SPEAKER_04There you go. Well, but you know, oftentimes you need an equalizer.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. You're so bad, dude. You're so bad.
SPEAKER_05All right.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I think we gotta we gotta call it even the I mean, um, Bill, I wish you uh tuned in earlier and it would have been fun to get your feedback on some of the your reaction to uh the the antics of uh these investment banks and oh my god, yeah, yeah, they did.
SPEAKER_01Well, this episode would have been full of F-bombs then. Uh oh yeah. Well, no, no, no.
SPEAKER_03Pete already handled a lot of that for that cover.
SPEAKER_04Excellent. Way to go, Pete. Way to go, Pete. Yes, but we're actually decided we're already gonna write the script for the next movie that's gonna be like the big short. That's the next version of the big short that's gonna happen as the whole economy collapses. But now that we've got Jensen having all our buddies at Goldman backstop the economy with 500 billion to keep buying GPUs, get back in there and sell, sell.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah. I'm just thinking about recreating dumb money.
SPEAKER_04There you go. Yeah, yeah, I'm down with that. Yeah, but yes, what's that movie gonna look like? You know, it's it's a it's a handful of people in Silicon Valley, and then we'll see the death throws happening in Wall Street, and you know, but we'll we'll have some humor in there, hopefully. You know what?
SPEAKER_03We uh we might have to resort to bartering in the in might be bartering.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, well, now that we know that a GPU is an investable asset, according to Jensen, we'll be able to borrow. I'm gonna trade this GPU for a ham sandwich.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, bring it to your restaurant, uh lunch place today and say, I'll give you this GPU for this ham sandwich. See how that works out.
SPEAKER_03We're starting to we have like a little mini farm in our backyard now, so we'll have some. Well, that's good. We're preparing for the AI apocalypse.
SPEAKER_02Right, grow your own food, everybody. Yeah, trying to get ready.
SPEAKER_01Please tell everyone to stop eating a Taco Bell. That we've been thinking for the moment nothing good comes from that.
SPEAKER_02I think they're doing okay with that as is without intervention.
SPEAKER_04I think people are getting you know, I was trying to get on this rapid weight loss program.
SPEAKER_01You don't need GOP one, you just need Taco Bell one.
SPEAKER_04It's like I go to the grocery store, it's like yes or something. Just find find everything from that Taylor Farms company. I feel so bad for them.
SPEAKER_01But yeah, they got hit again. Uh what was it? Uh jalapenos is yeah, jalapenos are bad. Yeah, I'm like, you just can't eat anything anymore. I mean jalapenos already had the internal combustion going, but now it's just going to be turbo on that thing.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, the GLP two. Yeah. Oh my god. That's pretty impressive stuff. It works though. Apparently, it has better effects than GLP ones do. Um so yeah.
SPEAKER_03All right. All right, all right, all right. Hey everyone. So thanks for tuning in. Uh, we really appreciate your viewership and your listenership. And uh remember, we do this just for the fun of it. Uh, you know, hopefully uh you don't take anything that we said seriously, even though we talked about very serious stuff. But remember, hey, if you don't like charity, you don't want to save communities, but you love fashion, pick up an IoT Coffee Talk shirt. We still have them. So just go to www.iotcoffee.com and pick your your shirt up. All proceeds will go to our charity, which is Elevate Our Communities, which are gonna start to blow up because Rob has his book. And if you don't have this, get it because this is going to be the new book of Eli. You know, the post uh bullshit economy collapse, which uh, you know, um uh you know anyway, but uh remember to follow us uh at uh www.iotcoffee talk.com. We're on YouTube, obviously, because you're watching us on YouTube, but then also Buzz Sprout. So any of you can do us and get get buzzed. Yeah, yeah. And so we will see you next week. All right, everyone. Take care. Bye. Good. Bye bye, adios.